# VCC-style aggregate-delta metric execution

Assessed: 2026-07-29

## Scope

This run applies formula-aligned multi-metric diagnostics to the frozen 55-target external Frangieh aggregate-delta panel. It is not an official `cell-eval` AnnData execution and is not a VCC 2026 task result.

## Scoreboard

| method | RMSE delta | MAE delta | PDS L1 | delta Pearson | delta Spearman | effect-size Spearman |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Safe ridge transfer | 1.092833 (0.923639 to 1.296737) | 0.186142 (0.166463 to 0.209007) | 0.514711 (0.437686 to 0.591744) | -0.014832 (-0.042783 to 0.013204) | -0.001305 (-0.041898 to 0.040458) | -0.055411 |
| Training-response mean | 1.092546 (0.923405 to 1.296701) | 0.184449 (0.164720 to 0.207365) | 0.513388 (0.436694 to 0.590091) | -0.016084 (-0.044493 to 0.012589) | -0.002686 (-0.043748 to 0.039412) | not defined |
| Zero change | 1.089592 (0.919939 to 1.294652) | 0.170675 (0.149890 to 0.194845) | 0.513388 (0.436033 to 0.589752) | not defined | not defined | not defined |

Intervals are 95% target-bootstrap intervals with 10,000 replicates. Undefined correlations for constant baselines remain null rather than being converted to zero.

## PDS scale audit

| prediction scale | raw L1 PDS |
| ---: | ---: |
| 0.00 | 0.513388 |
| 0.25 | 0.515372 |
| 0.50 | 0.516364 |
| 1.00 | 0.514711 |
| 2.00 | 0.514380 |
| 4.00 | 0.513388 |
| 8.00 | 0.519339 |

Truth-norm-matched PDS: 0.543140. This value uses paired observed norms, is diagnostic only, and is ineligible for hidden-test ranking.

## Locked outputs

- `des_deg_recovery`: LOCKED_REQUIRES_CELL_LEVEL_OR_DE_TRUTH.
- `deg_auprc`: LOCKED_REQUIRES_CELL_LEVEL_OR_DE_TRUTH.
- `single_cell_distribution_distance`: LOCKED_AGGREGATE_PREDICTIONS_ONLY.
- `cell_state_proportion_recovery`: LOCKED_AGGREGATE_PREDICTIONS_ONLY.

## Conclusion

The multi-metric adapter is operational on the existing 55-target external aggregate panel. It does not overturn the frozen NO_DIRECTIONAL_TRANSFER_SUPPORT conclusion and is not evidence of VCC 2026 task compatibility.

## Claim boundary

This is a formula-aligned aggregate-delta diagnostic, not an official cell-eval run, not a VCC 2025 rescore, and not a VCC 2026 task execution. No muscle, DMD, treatment or clinical validity follows from these scores.