{
  "page_type": "public_research_status",
  "updated": "2026-09-09",
  "formal_article_release": false,
  "study_specific_data_release": false,
  "study_specific_code_release": false,
  "study_figures_released_on_status_page": false,
  "new_outcome_results": true,
  "new_independent_group_result_increment": 0,
  "target_scored_historical_replay_groups": 1,
  "new_independently_custodied_group_target_quantitative_data_accessed": false,
  "current_claim": "The strict evidence base remains three study-level groups. A same-operator GSE291147 historical replay passed the directional ranking rule but had worse mean candidate loss, no hard-gated decision advantage, null CPL01 and failed non-triviality.",
  "next_evidence_state": "GSE306429 source predictions and a 52-archive target authorization are sealed. Archive transport is running before 44 fixed plate computations and equal-route scoring over seven routes and 627 route-items.",
  "disease_boundary": "DMD is a motivation and evidence-triage use case; directly measured outcomes remain 0/21 and no efficacy claim is released.",
  "prospective_protocol": {
    "schema": "nmd-vcell-historical-transfer-status/1.1",
    "scientific_state": "genetic_replay_complete__chemical_transport_authorized_running",
    "metadata_selected_groups": [
      "GSE306429",
      "GSE291147"
    ],
    "target_expression_accessed_groups": 2,
    "target_expression_decoded_groups": 1,
    "scored_new_groups": 1,
    "independent_group_increment": 0,
    "strict_independent_groups": 3,
    "custody_state": "same_operator_deviation_disclosed",
    "external_model_family": "Conditional Monge",
    "external_model_scope": "GSE306429 chemical track only; forbidden for the genetic track",
    "external_model_status": "FAIL_SOURCE_STAGE_RETAINED",
    "gse291147_result": {
      "n_items": 139,
      "n_genes": 5000,
      "hard_supported_items": 2,
      "source_ridge_loss": 0.917003193954147,
      "source_identity_loss": 0.9148515564380122,
      "risk_excess_spearman": 0.18236292953215066,
      "normalized_selective_risk_area": -0.0026640086909459444,
      "requested_coverage": 0.35,
      "actual_coverage": 0.014388489208633094,
      "decision_loss": 0.9156051402424934,
      "directional_rank_gate": "PASS",
      "nontriviality_gate": "FAIL",
      "independent_person_custody": false
    },
    "gse306429_state": {
      "status": "authorized_archive_transport_running",
      "source_cells": 184414,
      "source_items": 96,
      "fixed_genes": 2909,
      "hard_supported_items": 56,
      "authorized_archives": 52,
      "primary_archives": 44,
      "routes": 7,
      "route_items": 627,
      "target_score_complete": false,
      "independent_person_custody": false
    },
    "locked_contracts": {
      "baseline_rows": 11,
      "selective_cost_rows": 12,
      "coupling_control_rows": 4
    },
    "gates": [
      {
        "id": "group_selection",
        "state": "complete",
        "label": "Two historical replay groups selected before target scoring"
      },
      {
        "id": "source_only_seal",
        "state": "complete",
        "label": "Source predictions and matched baselines sealed"
      },
      {
        "id": "genetic_replay",
        "state": "complete",
        "label": "GSE291147 fixed target replay complete"
      },
      {
        "id": "external_family",
        "state": "failed",
        "label": "Conditional Monge source-stage failure retained"
      },
      {
        "id": "evaluation_contract",
        "state": "complete",
        "label": "Prospective comparison contract frozen"
      },
      {
        "id": "chemical_replay",
        "state": "running",
        "label": "GSE306429 authorized target replay running"
      },
      {
        "id": "custody",
        "state": "deviation",
        "label": "Same-operator custody deviation disclosed"
      }
    ]
  },
  "official_external_records": [
    {
      "accession": "GSE306429",
      "role": "chemical perturbation replay; authorized transport running",
      "geo": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi?acc=GSE306429",
      "publication": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi8577"
    },
    {
      "accession": "GSE291147",
      "role": "genetic perturbation replay; fixed result complete",
      "geo": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi?acc=GSE291147",
      "publication": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10367-0"
    }
  ]
}